Game Six is Game Seven

Here we go. Tonight is the pivotal game in the ALCS. With a comeback of historic proportions in game five, the Boston Red Sox forced the series to a game six in Tampa Bay. In my mind, this will be the deciding game of the series. Obviously, the series is over if Tampa wins, but I believe if the Red Sox are victorious tonight, they will not only have stolen all of the momentum the Rays had after being seven outs away from the first World Series berth in franchise history, but the Sox will have watered and nurtured the seed of doubt they planted in the young, inexperienced minds of the Tampa Bay Rays in game five into a full-grown tree. Game seven, at that point, will be a foregone conclusion and that proverbial tree of doubt will bare fruit for the Red Sox. But what are the odds of the Red Sox carrying their new found momentum into Tropicana Field where they have only won two of eleven games this season? It will all be decided by the right arm of Josh Beckett. He is the epicenter of what will be a season changing game for the Boston Red Sox. When you compare these two teams position by position, it is a wash. Tampa does have a slight edge based on the current effectiveness of their bats, but Boston’s experience and the after effects of game five make it a wash. Beckett is the difference maker. If he is able to round back into form, you have to remember that this guy has been one of the best post-season pitchers in recent history, he will put the Sox over the top. I know Beckett has not pitched well this post-season, but the Red Sox have had some real post-season magic in recent years. Whether it be Curt Schilling and the bloody sock, or Dave Roberts stolen base, or even the way David Ortiz always seems to put this team on his back and carry them when it seems improbable, the Red Sox seem to find a hero when they need to, regardless of that players’ previous performances, role or injuries. Now, Beckett does not need to be dominant, he just needs to be good. If Josh Beckett gives the Sox seven strong innings and allows two or fewer runs, the Rays don’t stand a chance. But it doesn’t have to be like that for the Sox to win. All they need out of Beckett tonight is six innings allowing three or four runs, then that will be enough to keep the Sox in the game and that is all they need out of him tonight. I know some of you will say that James Shields is going to have something to say about this game, but I have not seen enough out of Shields yet to say he can be a difference maker in the post-season. He has had a great season, especially at Tropicana Field, but he has never been in this situation before. Every game he has pitched this year from July through tonight has been the biggest game of his career and he has performed admirably, but we don’t know yet how big of a game he can handle. He has been nicknamed "Big Game" James, but it is hard to earn such a lofty moniker with what little experience he has in ‘Big Games’. We do know how big of a game Josh Beckett can handle. Some of his most dominant performances have come in the post-season and the World Series. His World Series MVP and three career post-season shutouts will pay tribute to his big game ability. What we don’t know is if Beckett is heathy enough to give the eighty to eighty-five percent of his past post-season dominance that the Red Sox need from him tonight. A big key to making Beckett comfortable tonight will be for the Red Sox to get an early lead against Shields. I expect the Sox to come out aggressive and for them to manufacture some runs early in this game. I do believe we will see Beckett do enough for the Red Sox to win tonight, and when that happens, there will be no stopping the Red Sox and Jon Lester in game seven. There will just be too much pressure on an inexperienced Rays team for them to get the job done in a do-or-die game seven against the defending World Champion Red Sox who will have all of the momentum heading into that game. So, I expect the Red Sox and Josh Beckett to defeat the Rays tonight, and in doing so, they will win the ALCS.